The Desk Views

The Desk is the single-viewport instrument: the room you keep open while the market is live. It answers “what is the surface saying right now, and can I act on it?“ The full BTC vol surface renders in 3D across strike and expiry, with the current expiry’s smile alongside it carrying its butterfly and calendar arbitrage verdict. Click a tenor on the surface to switch the expiry the whole desk reads.

Read it from the verdicts down. The smile’s arb pill is green only when both no-arbitrage checks pass (calendar: total variance non-decreasing in T; butterfly: Durrleman g(k) at least 0 across the strike grid). The oracle panel carries spot, forward, ATM IV, the vol-by-strike matrix, and the five raw SVI parameters. The vault panel leads with its sigma stress verdict, and the live tape merges mints and redeems newest-first with a running taker win rate, where under 50% means the PLP vault has the edge. Watch the wireframe pulse cerulean on each fresh on-chain SVI update.

Vol Analytics is the volatility desk in depth. It answers “what shape is the market pricing, and is that shape moving?“ The smile is plotted across log-moneyness, the skew and term structure are broken out with 25-delta risk reversals and butterflies, and the risk-neutral density the surface prices is recovered via Breeden-Litzenberger and shown with a digital probability ladder.

The 25-delta risk reversal is the headline directional gauge: negative means puts are bid, the normal BTC crash-fear regime. Forward vol exposes event risk between two tenors that a flat ATM curve hides, and goes blank when variance is not increasing across the window (a calendar arbitrage). The density’s tail shape flags a fat left tail when crash risk is priced richer than upside, and density non-negativity is exactly the butterfly condition, so it greens with the smile’s arb verdict. Smile dynamics measure whether the skew is rotating (vol points per hour) and how the SVI parameters drift over time.

Flow & Edge is where the vault’s edge is made or lost. It answers “is the vault selling vol above fair, and is the market priced correctly?“ Every fill is scored against its model-fair price, the digital N(d_2) from that fill’s own live SVI smile and forward, to show the VRP captured fill by fill, in basis points and in dollars.

The edge readout greens when the vault overcharged versus model fair and reds when takers got it cheap, premium-weighted over the window. The paid-vs-fair scatter plots every fill against the break-even diagonal (below it is vault edge), with dot size scaled by contract quantity. Calibration checks whether the price each side paid matches how often that side actually won, so a well-priced market sits on the diagonal and a gap flags systematically mis-priced UP or DN binaries. Whale flow ranks the largest mints by notional rather than count, and the range panel breaks out the vertical-spread product line that pays inside a strike band.

It is also where you trade. A connect-gated ticket leads with the same model-fair N(d_2), then mints or redeems a binary against your own on-chain PredictManager, with the premium debited from your trading account. The order summary spells out what you pay, what you win, and the max loss before you sign.

The vault is the counterparty to every position, so its solvency is the market’s solvency. This view reconstructs the open book from flow, marks every leg at fair value, and answers the LP’s real question: “is it safe to back this vault right now?“ It leads with one GREEN, AMBER, or RED grade, taken as the worst of utilization, max-payout utilization, top-expiry share, and exit ratio, exportable as a CSV or a printable one-pager.

Read the grade, then read what drives it. MtM concentration is the HHI across expiries (at least 0.5 is concentrated, at most 0.25 is diversified), since a concentrated book blows up faster on one bad settlement. The breach sigma is the worst-direction shock the vault survives before LP equity is wiped, found by repricing the whole book through the SVI smile out to five sigma; the scenario curve crosses zero at that point. Exit capacity is the binding minimum of free liquidity and the withdrawal-limiter budget, so you can tell whether LPs can actually leave. When the verdict says the vault is safe to back, the connect-gated panel supplies or withdraws dUSDC in place with a real predict::supply or predict::withdraw, clamped to the live limiter budget and free liquidity.

Managers is the desk leaderboard. It answers “who is trading this market, and how are they doing?“ Every trading account is ranked by volume, with realized and unrealized PnL, account value, open exposure, and open positions, paginated and sortable, with drill-through to a per-desk page that shows that account’s equity curve. The header rolls up market-wide activity and your own PnL.

The cohort is the highest-volume managers in the flow window, ranked by realized PnL, account value, or open exposure. Account value is the trading balance plus the mark value of open positions and any redeemable winnings; open exposure is the at-risk notional tied up in open positions right now. The market header counts total PredictManager accounts against the distinct managers active in the recent window, and nets vault premium in against settled payouts out.

Ops / Health is one read on whether the market is trustworthy right now. It answers “can I trust the numbers the rest of the desk is showing?“ Per-feed oracle freshness is checked against the staleness window, per-pipeline indexer lag against the chain head, and a single global verdict sits over the live data path. If a feed is stale or the indexer is behind, this is where it shows first.

A feed is Active when fresh, Stale once it passes the 30s window the contract enforces (past which mints revert), and Pending when its expiry has passed but it has not settled. The global verdict reads HALTED if trading is paused by the on-chain kill-switch, else DEGRADED if any feed or pipeline is bad. Pipeline lag breaks out per-pipeline time and checkpoint lag behind the single aggregate lag the footer shows, with backfill pipelines excluded.

Cross-Venue puts on-chain volatility in context. It answers “is Predict rich or cheap against the rest of the market, and does selling vol carry an edge?“ Predict’s ATM vol is plotted against Deribit’s DVOL index per tenor, where a spread of at least two vol points flags an actionable cross-venue read: rich means sell Predict vol, cheap means buy it.

The VRP is shown as Deribit implied vol minus Binance trailing realized vol, the spread that tells an LP whether selling vol carries an edge: positive means options are rich, the LP’s edge, and the shaded gap between the two lines is the premium sellers capture. Alongside it, a composability read frames the DeepBook stack itself, pricing the live margin borrow rate against the PLP supply yield across Predict, deepbook_margin, and DeepBook spot.